Picks and Predictions for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards (aka, the 2011 Oscars)

Do I dare comment, as everyone else has, on the roller-coaster type ride of this year’s Oscar season? If by “roller coaster” you mean a long straightaway followed by a succession of quick bumps and concluded with a shorter straightaway in a different direction, then yes, I would call this year’s path to predicting the Oscars a roller coaster.

Since it was released, the critical establishment flocked to The Social Network as the surefire winner of Best Picture (If a series of Best Picture wins from critics’ organizations is meant as prognosticator of how the Academy will vote–it’s not, but try telling that to the publicity gurus of groups looking for attention).  Roger Ebert even joked on Twitter that he was writing up his piece on the inevitable win of The Social Network (He later guessed True Grit would sweep, in what many took as a joke).

In case you haven’t noticed yet, I do not think The Social Network will win Best Picture.  A good chunk of Academy voters are up there in age (“Is that the FaceSpace movie?”) and really don’t care if a whole bunch of critics, wrongly, touted the film as a generation-definer.

They also, despite the ramblings of right-wing bloggers, lean to the social right (Remember, Crash, a revolutionary-for-the-1950s statement about race in the US, beat out Brokeback Mountain).  This has nothing to do with why The Social Network will lose and everything to do with why my prediction for Best Picture will win.  And why hoping my personal choice will win is nothing but a pirouette.

The Main Event

So, in the spirit of what really matters: Good luck in your office pool.

Best Picture
My prediction: The King’s Speech
My pick: Black Swan

Best Director
My prediction: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
My pick: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Best Actor
My prediction: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
My pick: James Franco, 127 Hours

Best Actress
My prediction: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
My pick: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor
My prediction: Christian Bale, The Fighter
My pick: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Best Supporting Actress
My prediction: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
My pick: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Best Original Screenplay
My prediction: The King’s Speech
My pick: The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay
My prediction: The Social Network
My pick: The Social Network

Best Animated Feature
My prediction: Toy Story 3
My pick: The Illusionist

Best Foreign Language Film
My prediction: In a Better World
My pick: N/A (Neither of the two I’ve seen, Biutiful and Dogtooth, would receive my vote)

Best Documentary (Feature):
My prediction: Inside Job
My pick: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best Art Direction
My prediction: The King’s Speech
My pick: The King’s Speech

Best Cinematography
My prediction: True Grit
My pick: The Social Network

Best Costume Design
My prediction: The King’s Speech
My pick: The Tempest

Best Documentary (Short)
My prediction: “Strangers No More”
My pick: N/A

Best Film Editing
My prediction: The Social Network
My pick: 127 Hours

Best Makeup
My prediction: The Wolfman
My pick: Barney’s Version

Best Original Score
My prediction: The King’s Speech
My pick: The Social Network

Best Original Song
My prediction: “I See the Light” from Tangled
My pick: “I See the Light” from Tangled

Best Short Film (Animated)
My prediction: “Day & Night”
My pick: N/A

Best Short Film (Live Action)
My prediction: “Na Wewe”
My pick: N/A

Best Sound Editing
My prediction: Inception
My pick: Toy Story 3

Best Sound Mixing
My prediction: Inception
My pick: The Social Network

Best Visual Effects
My prediction: Inception
My pick: Inception

The 83rd Annual Academy Awards airs this Sunday, February, 27th on ABC. The Red Carpet begins at 6:00 pm CST, and the ceremony starts at 7:00 pm CST.

I will be livetweeting the show on Twitter at @markreviews, much to the chagrin of my followers not watching.

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About Mark Dujsik

Film critic since 2001. Writer/editor/publisher of Mark Reviews Movies, and contributor for RogerEbert.com and Magill's Cinema Annual. Member of the Chicago Film Critics Association and the Online Film Critics Society.
This entry was posted in Awards, Movies, Oscars. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Picks and Predictions for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards (aka, the 2011 Oscars)

  1. Joel Copling says:

    I don’t blame Ebert for predicting “True Grit.” For all we know, it could be another 2007 for the Coens.

    Here’s how it pans out for me:

    Best Picture
    Will win: “The King’s Speech”
    Could win: “The Social Network”
    Should win: “127 Hours”

    Best Director
    Will win: Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
    Could win: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
    Should win: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”

    Best Actor
    Will win: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Could win: Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
    Pick: James Franco, “127 Hours”

    Best Actress
    Will win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Could win: Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
    Should win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

    Best Supporting Actor
    Will win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Could win: John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
    Should win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

    Best Supporting Actress
    Will win: Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
    Could win: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
    Should win: Amy Adams, “The Fighter’

    Best Animated Feature
    Will win: “Toy Story 3”
    Could win: “The Illusionist”
    Should win: “Toy Story 3”

    Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
    Will win: “The Social Network”
    Could win: “Winter’s Bone”
    Should win: “The Social Network”

    Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
    Will win: “The King’s Speech”
    Could win: “The Kids Are All Right”
    Should win: “Inception”

    Best Art Direction
    Will win: “The King’s Speech”
    Could win: “True Grit”
    Should win: “Inception”

    Best Cinematography
    Will win: “True Grit”
    Could win: “Black Swan”
    Should win: “Black Swan”

    Best Costume Design
    Will win: “The King’s Speech”
    Could win: “True Grit”
    Should win: “True Grit”

    Best Film Editing
    Will win: “The Social Network”
    Could win: “The Fighter”
    Should win: “The Social Network”

    Best Makeup
    Will win: “The Wolfman”
    Could win: “Barney’s Version”
    Should win: “The Way Back”

    Best Music (Original Score)
    Will win: “The King’s Speech”
    Could win: “The Social Network”
    Should win: “The Social Network”

    Best Music (Original Song)
    Will win: “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”
    Could win: “Coming Home” from “Country Strong”
    Should win: “If I Rise” from “127 Hours”

    Best Sound Editing
    Will win: “Inception”
    Could win: “Toy Story 3”
    Should win: “Inception”

    Best Sound Mixing
    Will win: “Inception”
    Could win: “True Grit”
    Should win: “The Social Network”

    Best Visual Effects
    Will win: “Inception”
    Could win: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”
    Should win: “Inception”

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